Question

Q3. Samir spins a fair coin and records the results. In the first four spins ‘Heads' comes up each time. Samir says, ‘A head is more likely than a tail'. Is he correct? YES/ NO Give a reason for your answer.

Answer 1

The conclusion drawn by Samir is Not correct.

Explanation:

The spinning of a fair coin is a Bernoulli experiment.

There are only two outcomes: Heads (H) or Tails (T).

Theoretically, each of the two outcomes has an equal probability of occurrence i.e. P (H) = P (T) = 0.50.

Now, suppose an experiment is conducted to test this theory.

The law of large numbers, in probability concept, states that as the number of times an experiment is conducted, say n, in increased, the average value of the experiment approaches the expected value.

To determine whether ‘A head is more likely than a tail', the experiment of spinning the coin must be repeated more than n = 4 times.

In statistics, n = 30 is considered as a large enough sample.

So, the conclusion drawn by Samir is Not correct.