I think the conductive heat loss is proportional to the DIFFERENCE 
between the inside and outside temperatures. In other words, if it's the 
same temperature inside and outside, then no matter what that temperature 
is, no heat flows through the walls of the house in either direction.
You said it's 20° outside, and you turn the thermostat down from 70° to 60°.
So you'd be reducing the DIFFERENCE between the inside and outside 
temperatures from 50° to 40°.
From 50 to 40 is a decrease of (10/50) = 20%. So your heat loss ... and 
the amount that gets added to your heating bill ... becomes 20% less for 
each hour that the inside and outside temperatures stay like this.