Question

Let's play a game of Russian roulette. You are tied to your chair. Here's a gun, a revolver. Here's the barrel of the gun, six chambers, all empty. Now watch me as I put two bullets into the barrel, into two adjacent chambers. I close the barrel and spin it. I put a gun to your head and pull the trigger. Click. Lucky you! Now I'm going to pull the trigger one more time. Which would you prefer: that I spin the barrel rst or that I just pull the trigger?

Answer 1

Don't spin the barrel.

Explanation:

Each time you spin the barrel, the probability A of finding a bullet, having two bullets in six chambers is:

`P(A)=(2)/(6)=(1)/(3)=0.33`

For you to get shot in the second try but not the first, the barrel spin would have to stop precisely at one specific chamber: the one right before the bullets, so that probability would be:

`P(B)=(1)/(6)=0.17`

which means that this event is half as likely as finding a bullet every time the barrel is spun. Your chances are better if you pull the trigger for the second time without spinning the barrel.