Question

The bus will be early, on time, or late. these are the only three outcomes, so the probability that the bus will be late is 1/3.

what is wrong with sasha's argument?

Answer 1

Sasha has used the theoretical probability which assumes that all the possibilities have an equal chance of occurring but in reality, the chances of each probability happening are not going to be equally split with the chances of the bus being on time being slightly higher than being early or late. This is called the experimental probability where you actually test out the probability of the bus being on time, early or late which is much more accurate than the general, theoretical probability.