Abstract
The distribution of wealth in the world is manifested by the polarization of a rich North and a poor South. Is the North-South conflict increasing or decreasing, and does it depend on such variables as major power conflict, intra-Northern conflict, and world prosperity, as some schools of thought maintain? Focusing on these questions from a leadership-long cycle perspective suggests several hypotheses about the interrelationships between global economic growth, Northern antagonism, and North-South conflict. The effect of conflict on growth is also examined. Generating data on world economic growth and major power conflict, intra-Northern conflict, and North-South conflict for the period from 1870 to 1992, vector auto-regression analysis is used to test new hypotheses. Results provide considerable support for the new hypotheses, provide mixed support for the previous arguments, and show that the relationship between world economic growth and conflict is not the same before and after World War II.