Question

Assume that an opinion poll conducted in a 1998 congressional race found that on election eve, 54% of the voters supported Congressman Stevens and 44% supported challenger Jones. Also assume that the poll had a +/- 3% margin of error. What would the pollster be able to safely predict?

Answer 1

Congressman Stevens will win the race

Explanation:

Considering the margin of error, the possible outcomes for each candidate would be:

Congressman Stevens: from (54 - 3)% to (54+3)%

Challenger Jones: from (44 - 3)% to (44+3)%

Congressman Stevens: from 51% to 57%

Challenger Jones: from 41% to 47%

Therefore, even considering the margin of error, the pollster would be able to safely predict that Congressman Stevens will win the race.