Question

You have just used the network planning model and found the critical path length is 30 days and the variance of the critical path is 25 days. The probability that the project will be completed in 33 days or less is equal to:_______.

Answer 1

0.726 is the probability that the project will be completed in 33 days or less.

Explanation:

We are given the following information in the question:

Mean, μ = 30 days

Variance = 25 days

Standard Deviation,

`\sigma = \sqrt{\text{Variance}} = √(25) = 5`

We assume that the distribution of path length is a bell shaped distribution that is a normal distribution.

Formula:

`z_(score) = \displaystyle(x-\mu)/(\sigma)`

P(completed in 33 days or less)

`P( x \leq 33) = P( z \leq \displaystyle(33 - 30)/(5)) = P(z \leq 0.6)`

Calculation the value from standard normal z table, we have,

`P(x \leq 33) = 0.726 = 72.6\%`

0.726 is the probability that the project will be completed in 33 days or less.