Question

A worker has asked her supervisor for a letter of recommendation for a new job. She estimates that there is an 80 percent chance that she will get the job if she receives a strong recommendation, a 40 percent chance if she receives a moderately good recommendation, and a 10 percent chance if she receives a weak recommendation. She further estimates that the probabilities that the recommendation will be strong, moderate, and weak are 0.7, 0.2, and 0.1, respectively. a. How certain is sh

Answer 1

65 percent certain to get the job

Explanation:

The given parameters are;

The chance that she gets the job if she receives a strong recommendation, P(J|S) = 80 percent = 0.8

The chance that she gets the job if she receives a moderately good recommendation, P(J|M) = 40 percent = 0.4

The chance that she gets the job if she receives a weak recommendation = 10 percent, P(J|W) = 0.1

The probability that the recommendation will be strong, P(S) = 0.7

The probability that the recommendation will be moderate, P(M) = 0.2

The probability that the recommendation will be weak, P(W) = 0.1

Therefore, the probability that she gets the job given any condition, is given as follows;

P(J) = P(J|S)×P(S) + P(J|M)×P(M) + P(J|W)×P(W)

∴ P(J) = 0.8 × 0.7 + 0.4×0.2 + 0.1×0.1 = 0.65

Therefore, she is 65 percent certain to get the job