Question

Cameron is betting on a game in which the probability of winning is 1 in 5. He's lost five games in a row, so he decides to double his bet on the sixth game. What does this strategy show? A)This shows good logic, because he's due for a win. A streak of bad luck calls for a future streak of good luck. B) This shows good logic, because he's more likely to win when the bet is larger. That's why it is sometimes called double or nothing. C) This shows poor logic, as he has an 80% chance of losing the double bet. His chances of winning will only change if the expected value increases. D) This shows poor logic, as he has an 80% chance of losing the double bet. The past bad luck has no bearing on the future chances. His chances of winning never change. E) This shows good logic, because he's due for a win. When the chances are 1 in 5, losing five in a row means that the sixth try will be a win. F) This shows good logic, because he's more likely to win when the bet is larger. More is at stake, so he'll concentrate on the game better.

Answer 1

D

Explanation:

Each game does not have an effect on the other, they are independent events, so his logic is poor. But that's the gamblers logic, so don't gamble kids, stay in school