Okay, here are the solutions to the questions:
1. Since Mr. Smith cannot sell his stock for 3 months and wants to hedge against a drop of more than 20%, a put option with a strike price of $36 would be appropriate. To collar this with call options, we would want the call strike to be $54 ( $45 current price + 20% hedge).
So put strike = $36 and call strike = $54.
2. If Mr. Smith can put up $200,000 for the puts, he can buy more put options which will allow a lower put strike, e.g. $32.
So now put strike = $32 and call strike = $51.
3. If the restriction is for 6 months instead of 3 months, a longer dated put and call would be needed.
For a 6 month hedge, put strike could be $30 and call strike $50.
4. If the stock price goes up to $70 after a month, Mr. Smith can:
- Buy back the put options at a lower price since the strike is now out of the money. This will cost less than the original purchase price.
- Sell the call options which are now in the money. This can generate a profit.
The total cost to terminate the hedge would be the amount spent buying back the puts plus any loss from selling the calls in the money.
5. If the stock price drops to $28, Mr. Smith would:
- Lose the $200,000 put premium since the puts are now deep in the money.
- Potentially have to exercise the puts and sell the stock at $28, taking a $17 per share loss.
- Lose the value of the call options which would expire worthless.
The economic loss could be substantial in this scenario.
6. I would recommend this strategy to Mr. Smith with some cautions:
Pros: Provides downside protection for a concentrated position. Allows Mr. Smith to keep the stock long-term.
Cautions: The strategy is complex and expensive. There are opportunities for losses as shown above. Mr. Smith needs to monitor the position closely. The hedge may not provide full downside protection.
Overall, for a large concentrated position, a hedge could provide some comfort but needs to be done carefully with full understanding of the risks and costs. Close monitoring is required.
The benefits of the strategy are downside protection and the ability to keep a large long-term stake in the company. But there are also risks of losses and the costs of implementing and unwinding the hedge. Proper evaluation of these pros and cons is necessary before employing this strategy.