Question

You think that there's a 5% chance that ghosts exist. then your uncle, whom you have never known to lie, says he saw a ghost. on the other hand, your uncle has poor eyesight and once mistook a bag of mulch for a dog. your estimate of the probability of ghosts existing should:________

Answer 1

A claim from a person with poor eyesight does not significantly change the probability of ghosts existing.

Step-by-step explanation:

If you think there's a 5% chance that ghosts exist, and your uncle, who has poor eyesight, says he saw a ghost, it does not significantly change your estimate of the probability of ghosts existing. Your uncle's poor eyesight and previous mistaken identification indicate that his claim may not be accurate or reliable.

One isolated incident does not provide strong evidence to override your initial estimate of a 5% chance of ghosts existing.