Final answer:
According to research, the percentage of recent marriages expected to end in divorce is closer to 41 percent, making 'one-third' the closest correct choice.
Step-by-step explanation:
The question inquires about the proportion of marriages that are expected to end in divorce or separation. Using the research referenced, we understand that calculations of divorce rates can be quite misleading without considering the methodology. By comparing unrelated statistics such as the marriage rate and the divorce rate, one might erroneously conclude that they reflect the failure rate of marriages within the same timeframe. However, a New York Times analysis, which considered the number of people ever married and those who later divorced, concluded that the U.S. divorce rates have reached up to 41 percent. Therefore, it can be inferred that option B, 'one-half,' would be a deceptive choice and that the correct option is A, 'one-third,' which is closest to the 41 percent figure indicated by more thorough research.