Final answer:
According to Cohen's Shatterbelt Theory, Hungary is the most likely country to experience armed conflict due to its history of political and cultural fragmentation and external interventions.
Step-by-step explanation:
Cohen's Shatterbelt Theory predicts that armed conflict is most likely to occur in regions that are culturally, politically, and geographically fragmented and are often caught between the conflicting interests of more powerful states. When looking at the listed options: France, Hungary, Norway, Spain, and South Africa, Hungary (e) is the most likely country Cohen's Shatterbelt Theory would predict to have armed conflict. This is based on Hungary's historical context, especially considering its involvement in the Soviet armed intervention in the 1950s, suggesting a historical pattern of conflict and intervention in the region. In contrast, the other options have been less historically subject to the types of conflicts that the Shatterbelt Theory describes.