If a recession in the United States were to start, all economic activity would start to slow down. This would show the PMI (purchasing managers' index) indicator slopping downward because items aren't being purchased at a fast paced rate. Housing starts are new construction builds that start each month, again, in a recession economic growth would slow so construction work would as well. A confirm payroll is statistically showing those who work in the economy except for: government, private business owners in home, nonprofit or farm workers.