Question

Suppose that you are seated next to a stranger on an airplane and you start discussing various topics such as where you were born (what state or country), what your favorite movie of all time is, your spouse's occupation, and so on. For simplicity, assume that the probability that your details match for any given topic is 1 50 and is independent from one topic to the next. If you discuss 17 topics, how surprising would it be to find that you match on at least one of them? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

Answer 1

0.2907

Explanation:

Given that you are seated next to a stranger on an airplane and you start discussing various topics such as where you were born (what state or country), what your favorite movie of all time is, your spouse's occupation, and so on.

Since each topic is independent we find that probability for success in each topic = constant = 1/50 = 0.02

X no of topics that match is binomial with n = 17 and p = 0.02

Required probability

= Probability to find that you match on at least one of them

=
`P(X\geq 1)\\=1-P(X=0)\\=1-(1-0.02)^(17) \\=0.2907`

It would not be surprising as probability is reasonably large.