The reasoning used in determining the action taken in this question is inducting reasoning, using strong arguments. Induction reasoning is a type of reasoning where premises (evidence of something that occur or something that has factual basis) helps an individual in coming to a conclusion based on these premises.
It’s clear that the writer’s previous experiences with Charlie’s drinking and subsequent obnoxious behaviors in the past parties that they’ve attended together led her or him to think that this behavior would appear again, thus making strong arguments to not invite Charlie to the next party.