Question

In 20 free throw attempts, Raul made 8. Based on this data, what is a reasonable estimate of the probability that Raul will make his next free throw?

Answer 1

40%.

Explanation:

Given that Raul made 8 of his 20 free throw attempts, it could be argued that he was 40% efficient on those free throws. This then 8/20 is equal to 0.40. Therefore, following this reasoning, it would be logical to say that Raul has a 40% chance of making his next shot, since that is his hitting percentage so far.